Saturday Feelings - Week 11
Apologies about last week everyone, I was overloaded with work and wasn’t able to get out a Saturday Feelings for Week 10 in time before the games. Hoping that won’t happen again!
Week 10 in Review:
I was pretty pleased with the results in Week 10. I was hoping to go 10-4 instead of 9-5 as that one game swing makes a huge difference in terms of performance accuracy. But, overall I am satisfied with the additions to the model and am feeling slightly better about the model’s performance. Hopefully these additions continue to provide better results into Week 7.
Some surprises from Week 10 were definitely the two most unbelievable sportsmanship plays that led to many people being extremely excited and extremely mad. The first was the ending of the Texans-Browns game when Nick Chubb broke away for a clear runaway TD and at the very last second stepped out of bounds at the 1 yard line. If he would have scored, the Browns would have covered the spread of 4.5. But in his show of sportsmanship and with the Texans out of timeouts, he stepped out and Mayfield ended the game with a kneel. This was great for me and bettors who tailed this pick!! Unfortunately, the luck ran out in the Cardinals-Bills game. Yes, the model predicted the Cardinals to win and to cover the 2.5 spread, but after the “Hail Murry heard around the world”, Kyler Murray took a knee instead of kicking the football or going for two with no time remaining. This led to the Cardinals winning by a score of 32-30, and the Cardinals did not cover. Overall, it was a great day of football (and a profitable one for the model) so can’t complain too much!
I want to review some laughable comments I’ve been getting on my posts. Someone commented “there’s no model, you just pick whatever comes from the polls” and I just have to laugh at this. It just doesn’t make any sense - especially because the model goes against the public so often. My favorite comment ever got deleted which is sad but understandable - someone said “no way the Colts score 30” and then the Colts scored 34. Anyway, these comments make me laugh and I love when my model is right haha.
This week will still be using the additions from last week. I haven’t had time to make any adjustments this week, but the model seems to be rolling okay. Just like the last couple weeks, I am nervous about the outcome. The model is picking a lot of underdogs this week so we’ll see.
The pick I like the most this week is the Titans to win outright over the Ravens. After watching the Ravens play the Patriots last week, I think the Titans have the chance to expose Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Ravens are a great team but I think the Titans are better actually. Even though the Titans have been inconsistent after their red hot start to the season, I think their power and ability is pretty solid and they have a good chance to win this week. Unfortunately, this is also the highest probability pick this week making it the hammer choice. For some reason, the hammer choices tend to lose more frequently. Fingers crossed that this one hits !
My least favorite pick this week is the Washington Football Team to defeat and cover over Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I just think that the Bengals aren’t as bad as their record shows and Burrow has the potential to win games big, and we saw that against the Titans a couple weeks ago. As a stats person, I have to stick with the model but I will do so begrudgingly.
As far as surprises, there really aren’t any specific games that are surprising. I am always nervous that the model loses every single game, which is statistically just as likely as the model getting every pick right. I just don’t know how I would handle a really bad week. I get so anxious with this page in general, but I am hoping for a good week. We’ll see!
Everything I do is for free because of my passion for sports and data science. I always post the predictions on instagram the day before gameday, but if you’d like the advanced analytics and predictions for the games days before everyone else, please check out the Patreon page linked here. In the same notion of this being free, every donation is appreciated if you’d like to help keep operations running, click the yellow button at the top of the page for our PayPal.
Check out our YouTube channel with our first video of the inner workings of the model here.
Check out our merch shop here. And if youd like’ to buy NFL data, check here.
And as always, good luck bettors!