Saturday Feelings - Week 2

Alright folks, all my predictions are up on the site and my instagram page. I am very excited to see how the model performs. 


The model is still so young - technically, it still has not even trained on 2020 football data! There is a chance that it gets every pick wildly incorrect; but, that is part of the fun and part of the learning. 


On the Thursday Night game, the model actually predicted the Bengals +6 as well as the Browns Moneyline. The score was slightly lower than the actual score, so the prediction for under was incorrect. I was very happy to see that the model got its first picks of the season correct!


Now that I am sitting in front of 15 predicted game outcomes for the Sunday games and Monday Night Football, I am nervous and excited. I would love to advertise this as a powerful machine learning algorithm, but I am just not sure how well it will perform. 


Surprises:

The model is predicting a few upsets that I’m not sure I totally agree with. The model is showing that the Chiefs will be upset by the Chargers on Sunday. This isn't impossible by any means, but I hesitate to say with confidence that Mahomes and the Chiefs will outright lose to the Chargers this weekend. The Chargers are +310, so if they pull off a win it will be a huge payday for Chargers ML bettors. I am not advising anyone to take this advice as this model is not tried or proven, but I personally will be cheering hard for LA!


Additionally, the model is showing that the Saints will be upset by the Raiders on Monday Night. This is a bit more believable in my opinion. Yes, the Saints are a great football team and are the favorite to win the NFC (+450 via DraftKings), but this game will be the Raiders first game playing at their new home in Las Vegas. Factors like this always come into play in little ways that add up by the end of games, so I am looking forward to watching. 


The model is also predicting very, very close games for matchups that have large spreads. The model shows that the Buccaneers (-9.5, ML -420) will only beat the Panthers by 1, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (-7, ML -286) will only beat the Texans by 1, and the Bills (-5.5, ML -235) will be upset by the Dolphins, losing by 2. 


I hope the model predicted all these outcomes correctly, but I am doubtful that it is smart enough in Week 2 to predict with this accuracy. 


Drop a comment below if you agree/disagree with the predictions and subscribe to get notifications on all posts, and follow my instagram page @bettor_picks for an easy way to see picks. 


And, as always, good luck, bettors!



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