Saturday Feelings - Week 6
Week 5 went pretty well, 10-3 against the spread! Hoping to see a big Week 6 as well. Especially as the number of followers on Instagram continues to increase, it creates a sense of urgency on my end for the model to crank out correct predictions.
Interestingly enough, I found a small mistake in the code that has led to the model being slightly less predictive compared to what it’s true potential is. I caught the error too late for this week’s predictions, but by next week I will be able to implement the corrections that should slightly improve the model’s output. Stay tuned!
Okay time to dive into these feelings:
Week 5 in Review:
Pretty good week for the model. Because this week’s picks for over/under were optional, there were less total correct and incorrect predictions, but it was equally fun to watch and get the picks right.
To see the full set of correct predictions and incorrect predictions, please see the predictions page linked here.
Again, this week I gained about 300 new followers after the model performed the way that it did. Pretty awesome stuff!
I did have to deal with an unnamed Instagram account that was trying to tell me that one of my predictions didn’t make sense because they “took an advanced stats course” and I let it get the best of me for a few minutes. But when my pick became true, I was able to calm down a bit. I know I am not the greatest data scientist to walk the earth, but I understand these numbers like the back of my hand and I am confident in the model’s output. No matter what happens, the model uses data and statistics to create outputs. The picks could all be completely incorrect, but since they are based solely on numbers, it is highly unlikely that they will be completely inaccurate.
In sum, I was pleased with the results this week and I am excited to see how Week 6 goes with predictions.
This week, I do feel pretty comfortable with the model’s output. I think all the predictions make sense and there isn’t really any game that seems too far away from what could really happen.
This is an important point, and I actually received a comment from an instagram user who has been supporting the page that really rings true. The user said that she hopes that people don’t put money on all these games that they don’t have because the model could always have on off week. While the model is based on stats/data, there is always the probability that it completely misses the mark. I am glad there is at least one person out there who understands this, as I have been trying to convey this message all season.
Back to football: as a fan, and from an emotional lens, I see some spreads that clearly make no sense from a pure matchup perspective. The data supports it as well, but I guess anything can happen. The Titans-Texans game and the Packers-Buccaneers game both have extremely low spreads for the level of the matchup between these two teams. I truly believe the Titans are a much much better team than the Texans. I also believe the Packers are much better than the Buccaneers, the data supports this too, but the spread is only 1 point. I guess we’ll have to wait and see how these games play out.
Nothing too surprising this week! The most surprising prediction is probably the Falcons-Vikings game. The model believes that the Falcons will actually win their first game of the season. I think this is fairly possible! The Falcons will be coming out hot trying to get their first win of the season, and the Vikings are a team that has shown they have the ability to lose games.
I guess another surprise would be output for the Washington Football Team against the Giants. The model thinks this game will be extremely low scoring: the lowest scoring game prediction of the year. It has the Washington Football Team edging the Giants by a score of 14-12. While it is surprising, I do not think this is a crazy score prediction.
Excited to watch this weekend!
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And as always, good luck bettors!