Saturday Feelings - Week 8

Well, Week 6 was the worst week for the model all season and Week 7 was the best! That was a huge swing and it was huge for the brand as we more than doubled the size of our instagram followers after going 10-2 on Sunday alone. Of course the games it got wrong were the 49ers and the Cowboys (I am from San Francisco and my sister lives in Dallas - the family teams were the incorrect picks lol). 


But yes - Week 7 was phenomenal. 11-3 on the Week as a whole from Spread predictions, 11-3 for Moneyline and 10-4 for Over/under picks. 


If you’re reading this, please go back to my Week 7 Saturday Feelings and look at my surprises for the Week. It was incredible - two of the surprises I felt nervous about were the ties that the model predicted between the Lions-Falcons and the Seahawks-Cardinals. Unbelievably, these were the closest games of the week… the Lions Falcons game ended with a 1 minute 30 second drive by Matt Stafford and the Lions to END REGULATION TIED at 22. The model predicted the Lions to win by 0.3 points and with 0:00 on the clock, the Lions added the extra point and won 23-22. And then, the Sunday Night Football game. My goodness. The model predicted the score to be 33-33. I got a comment from an instagram user who said “C’mon man the model predicts a tie?” or something like that. When I saw the comment I decided to act cordially as the brand Bettor Picks is all about being respectful and polite. So the model predicted 33-33 and guess what the score was at the end of regulation? 34-34! The model was eerily accurate! In this game, the model technically predicted the Cardinals to win by 0.3 points and the final drive of the game, with around 30 seconds left, was the Cardinals tacking on a field goal and winning by 37-34. The model got those two games pretty well and I am hoping people are starting to see the power of analytics. 


It was a great week, but following great weeks are always nerve wracking. Especially now that there are over 7,000 people that follow the account, there is a strong sense of urgency and responsibility to keep up the streak. At the end of the day, all I can do is be completely transparent about what the page is - I keep up all wins and losses, I try to convey every day that the picks are by no means guaranteed winners, and that sports betting over time is a statistically perfect recipe to lose money. But do people listen? I think that’s the better question. 


That being said, let’s take a look at Week 8’s predictions.


Week 8: 

This week again, there are no predictions that completely blow my mind and make me think there’s no way they don’t come true. Whenever I say that though, the model tends to have a bad week… so my comfortability in the predictions has led to my uncomfortability with the predictions… philosophical enough for ya?


The model loves the Titans, Packers, and Colts. Every week it feels like the model puts so much trust in them, which is fair - they’re all playing great! 


Interestingly enough, as a 49ers fan, the model cannot predict the 49ers games at all. Every week this season, the model has gotten the 49ers picks wrong. Maybe it’s just needed 8 weeks to learn about the team, but I’m hopeful the model can finally get their prediction right this week. They are taking on the Seahawks in Seattle and it will definitely be a good game. The line as it is now is Seahawks -3. The model has the Seahawks winning by 5 so we’ll see if that happens. If the model is right I’ll be happy, if the model is wrong, I’ll be happy because the Niners are my team! Oh and a good rule is to never bet against your team. 


Surprises:

The model really doesn’t think the Saints are as good as they seem to be. I think the model has predicted the Saints to cover zero times this season. However, this week they are playing against the Bears who may be the strangest 5-2 team that has ever been in the league. Both these teams are so shaky, but they both have some extreme talent on their teams. The model has the Bears to cover but the Saints to win which is a fair prediction but maybe a little surprising considering the line is only 4.5 this week. 


The other surprise from a modeling perspective is the Jets-Chiefs game. I made a post about whether or not the model would ever be able to predict a blowout. The answer that I came to in the post was “no, probably not”. However, in Week 8 with the Jets and Chiefs playing each other, the model actually projects the Chiefs to win by 20 points. This is something that I was never really expecting to happen. But if there was a single matchup that would trigger the model to predict a blowout - this is that matchup. Let’s see how lines and odds change throughout the weekend. 


I guess one surprise that I am unsure about is the Patriots +4 against the Bills. The Patriots have not been playing very well and something is off with Cam Newton recently. If I was playing by emotions I would definitely think the Bills have the upper hand here. As a good friend of mine once said, “never give Belichick points”. 


Everything I do is for free because of my passion for sports and data science. I always post the predictions on instagram the day before gameday, but if you’d like the advanced analytics and predictions for the games days before everyone else, please check out the Patreon page linked here. In the same notion of this being free, every donation is appreciated if you’d like to help keep operations running, click the yellow button at the top of the page for our PayPal.


Check out our YouTube channel with our video of the inner workings of the model and the data literacy series here.


Check out our merch shop here. And if you’d like NFL data, check here.


And as always, good luck bettors!



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